I’m grateful to a commenter over at PoliticalBetting for pointing out that one bookmaker – Ladbrokes – has taken the plunge and opened a market on the result of the Congestion Charge referendum.
They currently have a “no” vote as the odds-on favourite at 4/9, with a “yes” vote available at 13/8. I understand that the “no” price has tightened since the market went up, which suggests that the money is going heavily on a “no” vote.
I have received my ballot paper and I’ve posted it back today, so there’s one for the “no” column!
The odds on a ‘No’ have shorten again. Ladbrokes are now quoting 2/5 for a ‘No’ and 7/4 for a ‘Yes’.
So the bookies seem pretty confident of a ‘No’. They think there is a 66% chance with these odds.